DALCowboys
6-2
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
10 mph
17
GBPackers
4-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
0
7
7
Packers
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
283
Total Plays
58
68
Yards / Play
4.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.08
Passing Yards
217
178
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.02
Rushing Yards
61
105
Rush Attempts
14
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.68
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-34
-11
Sack EPA
-12.01
-4.76
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
67
100
Penalty EPA
-6.76
-13.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.9%
Spread Pick
Packers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-20.3
Final Difference
-13.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
2
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
9
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
1
Interceptions / Game
3
1
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
5
17
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U