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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ packers week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-2
28
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
8 mph
31
GBPackers
3-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
14
14
0
0
28
Packers
0
14
0
14
3
31

Spread

GB logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
421
415
Total Plays
79
61
Yards / Play
5.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
262
208
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.34
Rushing Yards
159
207
Rush Attempts
31
39
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-4.68
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-16
Sack EPA
-2.07
-7.10
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
83
40
Penalty EPA
-10.17
-4.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+22.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Value
Ptile
12/02
-1.6
41
12/12
-9.7
4
12/19
-0.9
46
12/26
6.8
91
01/02
4.3
81
01/08
9.5
96
01/16
-3.0
31
09/11
-8.0
6
10/23
-1.6
41
10/30
7.4
92
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Value
Ptile
01/22
-4.6
21
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.0
68
09/25
3.9
80
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63
10/16
-2.6
31
10/23
1.7
65
10/30
1.0
59
11/06
-4.7
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26

EPA

EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22

EPA

EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
17
RZ Efficiency
22
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/16
-6
L
L
U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
U
10/09
12
W
W
U
10/16
-9
L
L
O
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
20
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/16
-17
L
L
U
10/23
-2
L
L
O
10/30
-10
L
W
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U