DALCowboys
6-2
28
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
8 mph
31
GBPackers
3-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
33°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
0
14
14
0
0
28
Packers
0
14
0
14
3
31
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
415
Total Plays
79
61
Yards / Play
5.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
262
208
Comp/Att
27/46(59%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.34
Rushing Yards
159
207
Rush Attempts
31
39
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-4.68
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-3
-16
Sack EPA
-2.07
-7.10
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
83
40
Penalty EPA
-10.17
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+22.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
20
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
12
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
22
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
17
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
17
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U