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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ packers week 14, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
4-8
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
10 mph
28
GBPackers
8-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
7
0
7
Packers
0
14
0
14
28

Spread

GB logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
270
435
Total Plays
51
81
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
99
205
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.13
Rushing Yards
171
230
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
8.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
29
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
9%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.62
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-3.14
-3.16
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-4.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model76.0%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+240
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+82.2
Base HFA
+61.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-70.5
Market Regression
-6.2
Final Difference
200.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-70.5
Value
Ptile
12/29
-4.2
23
09/07
1.9
64
09/14
-13.2
0
09/21
-5.0
20
09/13
-5.9
11
10/25
-5.1
15
11/01
-2.1
35
11/08
2.5
68
11/15
-6.6
8
12/07
-3.3
27
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63
10/11
0.0
51
10/18
0.3
52
11/01
-3.5
25
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
12/03
3.3
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Cowboys logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
5
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Packers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
8
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
16
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-11
L
L
O
10/04
-6
L
L
U
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-7
L
L
O
11/01
-1
L
W
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-4
L
L
U
11/22
10
W
W
U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
14
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
4
W
W
O