DALCowboys
4-8
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
10 mph
28
GBPackers
8-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
53°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
0
7
0
7
Packers
0
14
0
14
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
435
Total Plays
51
81
Yards / Play
5.3
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
99
205
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.13
Rushing Yards
171
230
Rush Attempts
20
44
Yards / Rush
8.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.31
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
29
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
9%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.62
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-13
Sack EPA
-3.14
-3.16
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-4.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model75.8%
Spread Pick
Packers-6.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+81.3
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.4
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-70.5
Market Regression
-6.6
Final Difference
198.7
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-70.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
32
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Packers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U