DALCowboys
5-8
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
7 mph
14
CARPanthers
3-10
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
14
6
30
Panthers
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
235
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
5.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.14
Passing Yards
199
175
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.37
Rushing Yards
211
60
Rush Attempts
40
16
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-18.22
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-15
-44
Sack EPA
-2.80
-14.91
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
99
65
Penalty EPA
-13.56
-7.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,357
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+74.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-72.2
Market Regression
+39.5
Final Difference
54.8
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-72.2
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
32
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
32
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
31
29
Panthers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
29
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
9
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U