DALCowboys
2-2
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
8 mph
20
NEPatriots
4-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
3
3
16
Patriots
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
371
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.00
Passing Yards
300
270
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.03
Rushing Yards
77
101
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.47
-17.43
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-19
Sack EPA
-3.67
-5.15
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
77
35
Penalty EPA
-10.62
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
27
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
17
25
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
4
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U