DALCowboys
4-1
35
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
11 mph
29
NEPatriots
2-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
7
3
7
6
6
29
Patriots
14
0
0
15
0
29
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
567
337
Total Plays
83
51
Yards / Play
6.8
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
217
Comp/Att
36/52(69%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.15
Rushing Yards
122
120
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
17
Passing 1st downs
25
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.51
-13.01
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-7.60
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
115
47
Penalty EPA
-11.31
-4.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+34.0
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-25.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
-59.0
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
15
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
9
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
1
25
RZ Efficiency
7
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U