DALCowboys
6-4
9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
16 mph
13
NEPatriots
9-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
6
0
3
9
Patriots
7
3
0
3
13
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
282
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
181
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
17/37(46%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.17
Rushing Yards
109
101
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.37
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-3.82
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
50
56
Penalty EPA
-5.62
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,724
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
-8.9
Net QB Adjustment
-37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.4
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
12
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U