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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ patriots week 12, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-4
9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
16 mph
13
NEPatriots
9-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
38°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
6
0
3
9
Patriots
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

DAL logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
321
282
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
181
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
17/37(46%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.17
Rushing Yards
109
101
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.37
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-3.82
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
50
56
Penalty EPA
-5.62
-6.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,721
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+58.1
Base HFA
+49.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.3
Time Adj
-8.9
Net QB Adjustment
-37.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.4
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Value
Ptile
09/08
13.4
99
09/15
10.4
97
09/22
1.1
61
09/29
-1.1
45
10/06
2.2
67
10/13
3.3
73
10/20
1.6
65
11/04
3.3
73
11/10
6.5
89
11/17
8.7
94
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85
10/10
3.6
75
10/21
0.6
56
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.1
52
11/17
-3.5
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Cowboys logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8

EPA

EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
3
1
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Patriots logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
14
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
15
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
26
12
RZ Efficiency
26
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
18
W
W
O
09/15
10
W
W
O
09/22
25
W
W
U
09/29
-2
L
L
U
10/06
-10
L
L
O
10/13
-2
L
L
O
10/20
27
W
W
U
11/04
19
W
W
O
11/10
-4
L
L
O
11/17
8
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U
10/10
21
W
W
O
10/21
33
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U