DALCowboys
5-4
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
049
NOSaints
6-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
7
7
0
17
Saints
7
21
7
14
49
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
625
Total Plays
43
80
Yards / Play
4.5
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.41
Passing Yards
104
383
Comp/Att
10/24(42%)
34/41(83%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.59
Rushing Yards
89
242
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
40
Passing 1st downs
4
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
0%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
--
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.81
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-4.22
-1.64
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
82
44
Penalty EPA
-9.96
-4.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
137.7
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
3
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
6
11
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
3
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
9
28
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26
EPA
EPA / Play
5
25
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
26
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
12
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U