DALCowboys
8-5
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
017
NOSaints
13-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
14
3
7
0
24
Saints
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
439
336
Total Plays
73
62
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.05
Passing Yards
294
271
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.06
Rushing Yards
145
65
Rush Attempts
36
13
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
7
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-6.06
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-27
Sack EPA
-4.54
-7.10
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
30
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-4.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,689
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.3
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
18
Yards / Game
2
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Saints Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
3
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
10-0
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U