DALCowboys
2-2
20
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
6 mph
17
PITSteelers
3-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
3
3
0
14
20
Steelers
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
226
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
5.9
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.04
Passing Yards
336
134
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.07
Rushing Yards
109
92
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
60%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.35
-0.00
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-16
Sack EPA
-6.38
-5.17
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
87
50
Penalty EPA
-10.34
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
29
16
EPA / Rush
30
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
8
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Steelers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
19
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
29
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U