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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ texans week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
0-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
2-0
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
7
10
27
Texans
0
3
0
10
13

Spread

DAL logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
385
340
Total Plays
57
58
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
216
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.07
Rushing Yards
101
124
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.86
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.97
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
49
32
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-3.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/26
4.8
80
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
4.0
75
12/19
4.2
78
12/27
2.0
64
01/03
3.9
75
01/09
3.7
74
01/17
-7.7
9
09/12
4.4
78
09/19
4.0
76
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Value
Ptile
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Cowboys logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14

EPA

EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
8
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Texans logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
11

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
4
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
17
W
W
U
12/06
-7
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
U
12/19
7
W
W
U
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
20
W
W
O
01/17
-31
L
L
U
09/12
-6
L
L
U
09/19
-7
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O