DALCowboys
0-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
2-0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
10
7
10
27
Texans
0
3
0
10
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
340
Total Plays
57
58
Yards / Play
6.8
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
216
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.07
Rushing Yards
101
124
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.86
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.97
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
49
32
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-3.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
21
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U