DALCowboys
1-3
21
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
024
MINVikings
1-3
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
7
7
0
7
21
Vikings
7
0
14
3
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
188
Total Plays
60
50
Yards / Play
5.1
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
93
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.12
Rushing Yards
94
95
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.92
-5.46
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-6.14
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
91
45
Penalty EPA
-7.48
-4.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
+7.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
8
23
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
31
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
30
27
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
22
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U