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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ vikings week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
6-3
40
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
3
MINVikings
8-1
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
13
14
3
40
Vikings
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

DAL logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
458
183
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
6.5
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.45
Passing Yards
--
110
Comp/Att
26/30(87%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.54
Rushing Yards
151
73
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
71%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
12
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.70
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-49
Sack EPA
--
-15.83
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-4.89
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Value
Ptile
12/12
-9.7
4
12/19
-0.9
46
12/26
6.8
91
01/02
4.3
81
01/08
9.5
96
01/16
-3.0
31
09/11
-8.0
6
10/23
-1.6
41
10/30
7.4
92
11/13
-0.0
52
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
01/09
1.7
65
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
10/02
-0.6
47
10/09
5.7
88
10/16
-2.2
35
10/30
3.0
76
11/06
-2.2
36
11/13
-1.6
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
4
30
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
12
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
8
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/16
-6
L
L
U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/02
15
W
W
U
10/09
12
W
W
U
10/16
-9
L
L
O
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
20
W
W
O
11/13
-3
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
14
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
7
W
L
O
10/16
8
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
3
W
W
O