DALCowboys
6-3
40
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
03
MINVikings
8-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
10
13
14
3
40
Vikings
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
458
183
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
6.5
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.45
Passing Yards
--
110
Comp/Att
26/30(87%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.54
Rushing Yards
151
73
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
71%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
12
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.70
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-49
Sack EPA
--
-15.83
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-4.89
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
30
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
12
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
30
12
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
18
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
17
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U