DALCowboys
12-5
3
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
034
MINVikings
12-4
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
0
0
3
Vikings
7
10
0
17
34
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
323
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.03
Passing Yards
156
214
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.48
Rushing Yards
92
109
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
23%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.22
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-42
-20
Sack EPA
-12.97
-4.69
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
10
50
Penalty EPA
-1.79
-3.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+35.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+35.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
8
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
7
12
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
8
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
32
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
24
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U