MIADolphins
1-3
43
TBD
Levi's Stadium
73°F
6 mph
17
SF49ers
2-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
73°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
14
16
7
6
43
49ers
0
7
10
0
17
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
259
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
6.9
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.22
Passing Yards
342
128
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
16/35(46%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.84
-0.59
Rushing Yards
94
131
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
2.8
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
33%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.51
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-43
Sack EPA
-1.90
-10.71
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
69
75
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-8.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,390
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.9
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
25
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
16
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
25
RZ Efficiency
16
9
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
4
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
22
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U