MIADolphins
5-7
13
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
3 mph
27
SF49ers
8-3
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
3
7
13
49ers
0
6
7
14
27
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
321
Total Plays
57
55
Yards / Play
4.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.28
Passing Yards
133
166
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.01
Rushing Yards
94
155
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.73
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-19
Sack EPA
-1.96
-6.65
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
43
45
Penalty EPA
-6.03
-4.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model82.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+304
Home nfelo
1,686
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
+0.8
Final Difference
268.9
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
3
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
17
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
19
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
11
27
49ers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
2
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
1
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U