MIADolphins
1-3
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
6 mph
13
CINBengals
3-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
10
0
17
Bengals
6
0
0
7
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
298
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
211
218
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.28
Rushing Yards
68
80
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.48
-2.98
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-3.58
-4.59
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
46
Penalty EPA
-2.49
-4.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Bengals-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-22.2
Final Difference
101.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
8
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
18
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
18
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U