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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bengals week 5, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-3
17
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
6 mph
13
CINBengals
3-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
49°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
10
0
17
Bengals
6
0
0
7
13

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
279
298
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
211
218
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.28
Rushing Yards
68
80
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.48
-2.98
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-3.58
-4.59
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
46
Penalty EPA
-2.49
-4.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-22.9
Final Difference
101.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
09/09
-7.8
6
09/16
2.8
68
09/23
-4.6
21
09/30
0.9
56
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.9
25
12/11
1.8
64
12/18
-3.7
27
12/24
2.8
72
01/01
0.2
53
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
5.9
87
09/30
4.1
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
25
3
EPA / Rush
19
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
7
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
23
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
23
17
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
18
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
18
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-1
L
W
U
12/04
20
W
W
O
12/11
-16
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
2
W
W
U
09/09
-20
L
L
U
09/16
22
W
W
O
09/23
-3
L
L
O
09/30
-3
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-28
L
L
U
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/18
7
W
P
U
12/24
7
W
W
U
01/01
-8
L
L
O
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
7
W
P
O
09/23
7
W
W
O
09/30
17
W
W
U