MIADolphins
3-3
22
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
11 mph
14
CINBengals
2-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
9
3
7
22
Bengals
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
262
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
17/38(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.13
Rushing Yards
137
106
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.85
+0.04
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
42
36
Penalty EPA
-5.46
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model46.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals+1.0
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
26.1
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
26
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
6
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
26
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U