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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bengals week 8, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-3
22
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
11 mph
14
CINBengals
2-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
54°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
9
3
7
22
Bengals
7
7
0
0
14

Spread

MIA logo
-1

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
354
262
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
17/38(45%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.13
Rushing Yards
137
106
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.85
+0.04
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
42
36
Penalty EPA
-5.46
-4.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model46.3%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.7%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+1.4
Final Difference
25.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
09/12
-2.3
33
09/19
-2.9
30
09/26
4.3
78
10/04
0.7
53
10/17
3.2
71
10/24
1.9
60
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
12/20
3.7
73
12/27
-0.9
45
01/03
-7.9
8
01/09
-4.4
23
09/12
6.8
90
09/19
-3.5
26
09/26
-4.3
21
10/03
5.0
82
10/10
-1.7
39
10/24
9.9
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19

EPA

EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
26
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
6
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7

EPA

EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
31
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
24
28
Fumbles / Game
26
17
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
5
5
RZ Efficiency
23
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
-7
L
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
4
W
W
U
09/26
-8
L
L
O
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-3
L
W
O
12/27
7
W
L
U
01/03
-37
L
L
O
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O
09/19
5
W
W
U
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/24
-7
L
L
O