MIADolphins
0-2
21
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
7 mph
31
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
68°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
0
7
21
Bills
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
360
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
203
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.38
Rushing Yards
130
157
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
67%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.82
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-1.27
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-6.78
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
-6.4
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
25
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
17
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
30
14
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
19
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U