MIADolphins
2-5
27
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
30
BUFBills
6-2
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
3
14
27
Bills
3
3
14
10
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
327
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
224
233
Comp/Att
25/28(89%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.22
Rushing Yards
149
94
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-4.75
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.54
-0.92
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
57
40
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+38.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U