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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-5
27
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph
30
BUFBills
6-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
7
3
14
27
Bills
3
3
14
10
30

Spread

MIA logo
+6

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
373
327
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.29
Passing Yards
224
233
Comp/Att
25/28(89%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.22
Rushing Yards
149
94
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-4.75
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-4
Sack EPA
-1.54
-0.92
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
57
40
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-7.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,643
Away nfelo
1,496
Home Field
+38.5
Base HFA
+42.8
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
12/03
4.8
81
12/11
-3.2
28
12/17
3.5
73
12/24
4.4
77
12/31
-1.8
38
01/07
-2.0
34
01/13
0.5
52
09/08
1.3
58
09/12
-5.2
15
10/27
3.0
69
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
01/15
12.0
99
01/21
11.2
98
09/08
8.8
95
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
09/29
-3.6
24
10/06
-3.4
25
10/14
6.8
89
10/20
4.4
77
10/27
4.4
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
13

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
13
23
EPA / Rush
31
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
16
17
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
12
EPA / Rush
3
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
16
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-37
L
L
O
01/07
-7
L
L
U
01/13
-19
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
L
U
09/12
-21
L
L
U
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-1
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
14
W
W
O
01/21
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
L
O
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/20
24
W
W
O
10/27
21
W
W
U