MIADolphins
4-5
14
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
5 mph
19
BUFBills
3-6
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
0
0
7
14
Bills
7
6
0
0
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
184
281
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
3.3
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.06
Passing Yards
124
161
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.21
Rushing Yards
60
120
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
30%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.93
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-1.15
-3.96
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
69
100
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-11.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
+1.5
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
27
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
23
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
7
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
21
17
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U