nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-9
30
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
23
BUFBills
5-8
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
13
7
10
30
Bills
7
0
0
16
23

Spread

MIA logo
-1

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
448
404
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
7.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
194
291
Comp/Att
10/20(50%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.19
Rushing Yards
254
113
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
3
--
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.98
-11.43
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-25
Sack EPA
-6.72
-4.56
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
62
92
Penalty EPA
+0.37
-11.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-25.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
11/07
-5.4
15
10/17
-8.6
4
10/23
-3.3
29
10/30
-4.8
20
11/06
7.2
91
11/13
-1.9
37
11/20
2.7
70
11/24
-0.5
48
12/04
2.2
66
12/11
-7.7
7
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
10/02
-0.5
48
10/09
0.8
57
10/16
-0.8
46
10/30
2.8
72
11/06
-2.0
36
11/13
-4.4
22
11/20
-7.1
9
11/27
7.3
92
12/04
2.5
69
12/11
-7.8
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28

EPA

EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
20
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
6
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
11
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
-3
L
W
U
11/06
28
W
W
U
11/13
11
W
W
U
11/20
27
W
W
U
11/24
-1
L
W
U
12/04
20
W
W
O
12/11
-16
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/30
23
W
W
U
11/06
-16
L
L
U
11/13
-37
L
L
O
11/20
-27
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
O
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-27
L
L
U