MIADolphins
4-9
30
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
23
BUFBills
5-8
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
13
7
10
30
Bills
7
0
0
16
23
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
404
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
7.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
194
291
Comp/Att
10/20(50%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.19
Rushing Yards
254
113
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
3
--
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-12.98
-11.43
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-25
Sack EPA
-6.72
-4.56
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
62
92
Penalty EPA
+0.37
-11.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-13
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.2
Market Regression
-25.5
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
17
21
EPA / Rush
20
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-9
O/U
Bills
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U