MIADolphins
9-5
34
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
13 mph
31
BUFBills
7-7
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
7
7
14
3
3
34
Bills
0
7
14
10
0
31
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
494
589
Total Plays
68
90
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.47
Rushing Yards
261
272
Rush Attempts
38
49
Yards / Rush
6.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.29
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-1.91
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-3.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-68.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-68.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
19
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
1
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U