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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
9-5
34
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
13 mph
31
BUFBills
7-7
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
7
7
14
3
3
34
Bills
0
7
14
10
0
31

Spread

MIA logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
494
589
Total Plays
68
90
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
317
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.47
Rushing Yards
261
272
Rush Attempts
38
49
Yards / Rush
6.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
14
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.29
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-1.91
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
35
Penalty EPA
-2.28
-3.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+64.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
-68.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-68.1
Value
Ptile
11/06
7.2
91
11/13
-1.9
37
11/20
2.7
70
11/24
-0.5
48
12/04
2.2
66
12/11
-7.7
7
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
-3.9
26
01/01
-3.3
29
12/17
3.2
74
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18
12/18
2.0
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29

EPA

EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
19
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
20
20
Fumbles / Game
11
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
1
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
5
7
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-13
L
L
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
11/06
4
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
P
O
12/04
-32
L
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/17
21
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
L
O
12/18
20
W
W
O