MIADolphins
7-8
17
TBD
New Era Field
33°F
9 mph
42
BUFBills
5-10
TBD
New Era Field
33°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
8
3
0
11
Bills
14
0
14
14
42
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
381
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
3.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
+0.03
Passing Yards
126
215
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.24
Rushing Yards
99
166
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.85
-7.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-11.25
-1.50
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-8.73
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model60.4%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+5.5
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,309
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.8
Home QB Adjustment
+43.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
73.0
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
27
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U