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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ bills week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-8
17
TBD
New Era Field
33°F
9 mph
42
BUFBills
5-10
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
33°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
8
3
0
11
Bills
14
0
14
14
42

Spread

BUF logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
225
381
Total Plays
61
60
Yards / Play
3.7
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.42
+0.03
Passing Yards
126
215
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.24
Rushing Yards
99
166
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.85
-7.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-24
-9
Sack EPA
-11.25
-1.50
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-8.73
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model60.1%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.1%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+22
Home nfelo
1,303
Away nfelo
1,382
Home Field
+53.3
Base HFA
+59.4
Divisional Adj
-26.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.8
Home QB Adjustment
+43.9
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
-4.1
Final Difference
70.9
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Value
Ptile
09/09
-0.8
41
09/16
0.9
52
09/23
7.7
92
09/30
-8.7
7
10/07
-7.1
10
11/25
2.4
66
12/02
-2.1
32
12/09
2.8
69
12/16
-13.8
1
12/23
-3.5
24
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+43.9
Value
Ptile
09/16
-6.3
12
09/23
4.7
78
09/30
-15.4
0
10/07
-4.9
18
10/14
-6.0
13
11/25
6.1
85
12/02
5.0
79
12/09
-1.0
40
12/16
0.1
47
12/23
-3.6
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
27
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
30
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31

EPA

EPA / Play
31
23
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
20
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
4
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
6
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
16
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/21
-11
L
L
O
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/11
-19
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
O
12/23
-10
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-7
L
W
U
10/21
-32
L
L
U
10/29
-19
L
L
U
11/04
-32
L
L
O
11/11
31
W
W
O
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-4
L
L
U
12/09
-4
L
L
O
12/16
1
W
L
U
12/23
-12
L
W
U