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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ broncos week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
6-4
36
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
39°F
6 mph
39
DENBroncos
7-3
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
39°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
14
7
8
36
Broncos
3
14
0
22
39

Spread

MIA logo
+7

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
315
452
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.33
Passing Yards
216
251
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.52
Rushing Yards
99
201
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
100%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
5
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
8
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.11
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-1.61
-2.37
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
50
98
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-13.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model76.3%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
203.1
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
11/09
-1.6
39
11/13
3.1
72
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
09/07
3.9
77
09/14
6.0
87
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
8.9
94
10/12
3.4
73
10/19
10.1
96
10/23
7.6
90
11/02
3.9
77
11/09
8.0
91
11/16
-0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Dolphins logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
15
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Broncos logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23

EPA

EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
9
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
4
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
13
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
7
W
L
O
09/14
7
W
L
U
09/21
-6
L
L
U
10/05
21
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
O
10/19
25
W
W
O
10/23
14
W
W
O
11/02
-22
L
L
O
11/09
24
W
W
O
11/16
-15
L
L
U