MIADolphins
6-4
36
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
39°F
6 mph
39
DENBroncos
7-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
39°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
14
7
8
36
Broncos
3
14
0
22
39
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
452
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.33
Passing Yards
216
251
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.52
Rushing Yards
99
201
Rush Attempts
22
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
50%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
100%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
5
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.11
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-12
-8
Sack EPA
-1.61
-2.37
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
50
98
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-13.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
Broncos-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,709
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
+25.0
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
201.5
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
17
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
15
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Broncos Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
5
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
4
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U