MIADolphins
-
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
13 mph
10
CLEBrowns
-
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
10
23
Browns
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
291
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.18
Passing Yards
255
244
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
26/53(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.21
Rushing Yards
20
47
Rush Attempts
23
13
Yards / Rush
0.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-9.79
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-17
-45
Sack EPA
-4.59
-7.22
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
77
57
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-7.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
+28.5
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U