nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ browns week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
-
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
13 mph
10
CLEBrowns
-
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
7
10
23
Browns
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

MIA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
275
291
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.18
Passing Yards
255
244
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
26/53(49%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.21
Rushing Yards
20
47
Rush Attempts
23
13
Yards / Rush
0.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-9.79
Sacks
4
6
Sack Yards
-17
-45
Sack EPA
-4.59
-7.22
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
77
57
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-7.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
+28.5
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
10/28
-5.8
13
11/04
0.3
52
11/11
-8.2
5
11/15
-9.0
4
11/25
4.3
77
12/02
-3.8
26
12/09
-1.0
42
12/16
6.9
89
12/23
0.1
50
12/30
-9.1
4
B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
11/18
0.4
52
11/25
-3.6
27
12/02
1.4
59
12/09
-2.9
30
12/16
-3.6
27
12/23
-3.9
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Dolphins logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
26
23
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18

EPA

EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
28
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
16
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Browns logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24

EPA

EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
14
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
24
11
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
22
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
21
W
W
O
11/04
-3
L
L
U
11/11
-34
L
L
U
11/15
-5
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
W
O
12/02
-7
L
P
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O
12/16
21
W
W
U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
23
W
W
U
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
-22
L
L
O
12/30
-14
L
L
U