MIADolphins
0-2
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
5 mph
17
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
3
3
16
Browns
0
7
3
7
17
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
280
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.05
Passing Yards
231
--
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
19/39(49%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.03
Rushing Yards
138
70
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.68
-3.47
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-7.07
--
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
93
85
Penalty EPA
-11.58
-7.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model45.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+1.5
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
30.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
5
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
18
EPA / Pass
17
12
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
16
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
11
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
24
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U