nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ buccaneers week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIA logo
MIADolphins
4-4
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph
22
TBBuccaneers
0-8
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
12
0
19
Buccaneers
10
3
0
7
20

Spread

TB logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
213
264
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
3.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
211
124
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.20
Rushing Yards
2
140
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
0.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
+0.00
-4.67
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-1.86
-3.53
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
70
70
Penalty EPA
-6.02
-6.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.7
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-37.9
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
0.1
50
12/30
-9.1
4
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-6.0
14
10/13
0.7
55
10/20
0.6
54
10/24
-0.2
48
11/03
2.3
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
21
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
28
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
22
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
14
W
W
U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-15
L
L
U
12/30
5
W
W
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O