MIADolphins
4-4
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph
22
TBBuccaneers
0-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
12
0
19
Buccaneers
10
3
0
7
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
264
Total Plays
59
60
Yards / Play
3.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.03
Passing Yards
211
124
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
11/21(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.20
Rushing Yards
2
140
Rush Attempts
14
37
Yards / Rush
0.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
+0.00
-4.67
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-1.86
-3.53
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
70
70
Penalty EPA
-6.02
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.7
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
-38.8
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
21
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
28
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
4
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
8
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
14
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U