MIADolphins
1-2
21
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
024
ARICardinals
3-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Dolphins
0
13
0
8
0
21
Cardinals
0
0
7
14
3
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
482
297
Total Plays
75
71
Yards / Play
6.4
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.10
Passing Yards
396
269
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
29/48(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.17
Rushing Yards
86
28
Rush Attempts
29
15
Yards / Rush
3.0
1.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
15
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.54
-10.64
Sacks
4
8
Sack Yards
-37
-55
Sack EPA
-9.41
-12.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
40
62
Penalty EPA
-4.22
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
+29.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-43.7
Final Difference
111.9
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Value
Ptile
K. Kolb
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+29.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
2
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
19
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
11
3
Cardinals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
12
EPA
EPA / Play
32
14
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U