MIADolphins
4-3
34
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
5-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
8
10
0
10
28
Cardinals
7
10
14
0
31
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
442
Total Plays
56
64
Yards / Play
5.6
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.12
Passing Yards
221
264
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.37
Rushing Yards
91
178
Rush Attempts
25
37
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.33
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-19
Sack EPA
-5.01
-9.33
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
75
71
Penalty EPA
-7.92
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+10.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+112.6
Home QB Adjustment
+41.7
Away QB Adjustment
-70.9
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-70.9
Value
Ptile
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+41.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
23
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
22
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
16
4
Cardinals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
16
EPA
EPA / Play
15
5
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
3
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
23
3
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
9
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U