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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ chargers week 4, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
0-3
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
9 mph
26
LACChargers
2-1
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
3
3
16
Chargers
7
6
10
3
26

Spread

LAC logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
248
411
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
4.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.15
Passing Yards
176
295
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.38
Rushing Yards
72
116
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.78
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-3.58
-2.04
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
41
80
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-10.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-61.3
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
11/07
-5.3
16
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-6.6
11
12/12
-9.9
4
12/19
2.2
63
12/26
-1.0
42
01/02
-9.7
4
09/12
9.1
96
09/18
-4.8
20
09/25
-1.5
40
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
3.7
74
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20

EPA

EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
20
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
24
26
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
17
Fumbles / Game
12
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
10
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-16
L
L
U
11/28
16
W
W
O
12/05
-3
L
L
U
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
-3
L
L
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
21
W
W
U
11/28
22
W
W
P
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U