MIADolphins
0-3
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
9 mph
26
LACChargers
2-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
84°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
3
3
3
16
Chargers
7
6
10
3
26
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
411
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
4.5
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.15
Passing Yards
176
295
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.38
Rushing Yards
72
116
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.78
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-3.58
-2.04
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
41
80
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-10.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+201
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-61.3
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
23
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
24
26
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
3
Interceptions / Game
25
17
Fumbles / Game
12
32
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U