MIADolphins
4-4
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
11 mph
24
LACChargers
4-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
85°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
7
14
4
25
Chargers
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
379
Total Plays
50
71
Yards / Play
6.7
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.03
Passing Yards
231
309
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.21
Rushing Yards
106
70
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.74
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-3.18
-4.63
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
69
29
Penalty EPA
-13.39
-7.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.6
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
25
15
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
13
EPA / Pass
18
13
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
19
EPA / Pass
15
12
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
31
7
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U