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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ chiefs week 9, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
0-7
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
12 mph
3
KCChiefs
4-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
14
3
31
Chiefs
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

MIA logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
351
343
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
7.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.20
Rushing Yards
107
116
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
20
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-7.47
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
49
70
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-11.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-34.1
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
Value
Ptile
12/27
3.7
73
01/03
-0.8
45
09/12
-11.0
2
09/19
-7.7
8
10/24
5.5
85
10/31
-6.3
12
11/07
-5.4
15
10/17
-8.6
4
10/23
-3.3
29
10/30
-4.8
20
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
12/26
9.2
96
01/02
-15.3
0
01/09
-12.5
1
09/11
-4.0
25
09/18
-8.7
4
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
10/09
6.6
89
10/23
-6.5
12
10/31
-2.4
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Dolphins logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
20
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chiefs logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
31
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
32
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
-3
L
L
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
-3
L
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
-21
L
L
U
01/09
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-34
L
L
O
09/18
-45
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
5
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
O
10/23
28
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
U