MIADolphins
0-7
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
12 mph
3
KCChiefs
4-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
14
3
31
Chiefs
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
343
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
7.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
20/39(51%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.70
-0.20
Rushing Yards
107
116
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
20
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-7.47
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
49
70
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-11.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+33.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-34.1
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
20
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
6
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
15
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
3
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
23
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U