MIADolphins
6-2
14
TBD
Deutsche Bank Park
70°F
021
KCChiefs
6-2
TBD
Deutsche Bank Park
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
14
0
14
Chiefs
7
8
0
0
15
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
267
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.03
Passing Yards
175
174
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.05
Rushing Yards
117
93
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.80
-3.84
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-4.06
-4.44
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
45
69
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-10.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+7.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
-7.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-28.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+27.1
Market Regression
-117.7
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.1
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
31
Interceptions / Game
24
27
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
8
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
13
13
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
21
16
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
12
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U