MIADolphins
1-0
24
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
1-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
14
3
7
0
24
Colts
3
14
3
0
20
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
448
Total Plays
66
72
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.02
Passing Yards
297
315
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
25/43(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.04
Rushing Yards
101
133
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.17
-4.36
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-9.56
-4.48
Penalties
--
3
Penalty Yards
--
13
Penalty EPA
--
-2.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
27
22
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
27
Interceptions / Game
20
21
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Colts Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
11
20
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24
EPA
EPA / Play
10
14
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
6
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
1
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
10
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U