MIADolphins
0-2
6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
2-0
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
0
0
6
Cowboys
10
0
14
7
31
Spread
-22.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
476
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
4.2
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.13
Passing Yards
211
241
Comp/Att
20/41(49%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.16
Rushing Yards
72
235
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.9
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
20%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.31
-4.70
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.94
-1.45
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
35
100
Penalty EPA
-3.46
-13.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-21.0
Current
-22.5
Model
-22.5
Win Probability
Market95.5%
Model95.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+478
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,265
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+104.1
Home QB Adjustment
+30.2
Away QB Adjustment
-73.8
Market Regression
+34.0
Final Difference
528.0
Model Spread
-22.5
Quarterbacks
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-73.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
9
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
22
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
27
30
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
18
6
Cowboys Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
3
32
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
20
28
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U