MIADolphins
3-7
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
6-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
10
3
19
Cowboys
0
10
0
10
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
303
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.10
Passing Yards
263
218
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.07
Rushing Yards
89
85
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.63
-9.56
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-5.31
-1.31
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
55
69
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-9.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+21.6
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
-45.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
17
18
EPA / Rush
20
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
9
18
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
24
22
Cowboys Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
6
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
4
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
6
14
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
19
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U