MIADolphins
2-2
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
017
ATLFalcons
3-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
14
6
20
Falcons
10
7
0
0
17
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
339
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
239
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.11
Rushing Yards
138
100
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.00
-3.59
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
42
73
Penalty EPA
-0.25
-8.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+93.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-26.3
Market Regression
+74.4
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
30
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
20
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
26
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U