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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ falcons week 6, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-2
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
17
ATLFalcons
3-1
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
14
6
20
Falcons
10
7
0
0
17

Spread

MIA logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
289
339
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
239
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.11
Rushing Yards
138
100
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.00
-3.59
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
42
73
Penalty EPA
-0.25
-8.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+95.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.5
Away QB Adjustment
-26.3
Market Regression
+74.2
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
Value
Ptile
01/03
-5.0
15
09/11
-5.2
15
09/19
-6.4
10
10/31
3.0
73
11/13
-9.5
3
11/20
-4.4
17
09/17
1.2
61
09/24
-3.9
25
10/01
-7.2
12
10/08
-7.5
10
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
4.1
79
12/24
4.0
78
01/01
9.2
95
01/14
6.0
86
01/22
15.1
100
02/05
1.1
57
09/10
3.2
75
09/17
-0.1
51
09/24
-2.1
38
10/01
-2.4
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Falcons Defense
Dolphins logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
28
6
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
30
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Falcons Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Falcons logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
20
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
8
28
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
26
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-32
L
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/17
21
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-18
L
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-20
L
L
U
10/08
6
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
28
W
W
O
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
6
W
L
O
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/22
23
W
W
O
02/05
-6
L
L
O
09/10
6
W
L
U
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
4
W
W
O
10/01
-6
L
L
U