MIADolphins
0-6
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
12 mph
20
NYGGiants
4-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
3
0
17
Giants
3
7
0
10
20
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
402
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.10
Passing Yards
101
344
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.23
+0.33
Rushing Yards
145
58
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.72
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-37
-5
Sack EPA
-4.50
-0.78
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
30
46
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-8.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-34.7
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
20
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
3
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
12
17
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U