MIADolphins
3-10
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
19 mph
36
NYGGiants
2-11
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
10
3
7
20
Giants
0
7
14
13
34
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
412
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
262
274
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
122
138
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
23%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.56
-11.40
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-5.75
-1.49
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
42
32
Penalty EPA
-6.66
-3.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,354
Away nfelo
1,263
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
107.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U