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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ giants week 15, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
3-10
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
19 mph
36
NYGGiants
2-11
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
10
3
7
20
Giants
0
7
14
13
34

Spread

NYG logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
384
412
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
262
274
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.06
Rushing Yards
122
138
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
23%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.56
-11.40
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-10
Sack EPA
-5.75
-1.49
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
42
32
Penalty EPA
-6.66
-3.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,260
Home Field
+64.0
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
107.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
-5.9
16
09/15
-14.2
1
10/20
4.6
82
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
11/10
-3.6
27
11/17
-1.5
43
11/24
-2.0
39
12/01
4.3
80
12/08
-1.4
44
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-0.1
45
12/02
-5.4
16
12/09
1.3
56
12/16
-7.9
9
12/23
5.9
84
12/30
1.2
55
09/08
3.8
77
09/15
-3.5
27
12/09
-2.2
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Giants Defense
Dolphins logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
27
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
20

EPA

EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Giants Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Giants logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
23
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
27

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
11
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
1
Interceptions / Game
25
13
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
24
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
17
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-20
L
L
U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
W
O
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
11/10
4
W
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
21
W
W
U
10/06
-18
L
L
U
10/10
-21
L
L
O
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
W
O
11/04
-19
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
O
11/24
-5
L
W
U
12/01
-18
L
L
O
12/09
-6
L
W
U