MIADolphins
1-4
20
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
63°F
11 mph
23
JAXJaguars
0-5
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
63°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
6
0
7
20
Jaguars
3
7
7
6
23
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
396
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
312
Comp/Att
34/48(71%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.23
Rushing Yards
77
84
Rush Attempts
20
19
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
53%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.73
-4.78
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-5.67
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
54
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-7.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-1.5
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,333
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.5
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
-23.2
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
-69.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
29
22
EPA
EPA / Play
22
31
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
21
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
28
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
4-5-1
O/U