MIADolphins
6-6
14
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
13 mph
10
JAXJaguars
7-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
7
7
0
0
14
Jaguars
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+1.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
217
Total Plays
71
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.21
Passing Yards
208
122
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
11/26(42%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.44
Rushing Yards
146
95
Rush Attempts
40
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
14
3
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
53%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.22
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-17
Sack EPA
-2.48
-3.74
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
27
10
Penalty EPA
-4.03
-0.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
24
Yards / Game
17
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
3
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Jaguars Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
13
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
28
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
4
16
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U