MIADolphins
1-0
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
88°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
0-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
88°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
6
6
Jets
0
10
10
0
20
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
336
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
3.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.07
Passing Yards
195
233
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.46
Rushing Yards
30
103
Rush Attempts
15
34
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
8%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.27
-3.55
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-16
Sack EPA
-1.36
-4.35
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
51
94
Penalty EPA
-0.87
-9.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,347
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
-0.8
Final Difference
-109.6
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U