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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
1-0
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
88°F
5 mph
20
NYJJets
0-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
88°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
0
6
6
Jets
0
10
10
0
20

Spread

NYJ logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
225
336
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
3.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.07
Passing Yards
195
233
Comp/Att
26/45(58%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.46
Rushing Yards
30
103
Rush Attempts
15
34
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
8%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.27
-3.55
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-25
-16
Sack EPA
-1.36
-4.35
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
51
94
Penalty EPA
-0.87
-9.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,345
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
-0.6
Final Difference
-110.0
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
12/13
1.8
64
12/20
-3.1
28
12/27
0.8
55
01/03
-5.0
15
09/11
-5.2
15
09/19
-6.4
10
10/31
3.0
73
11/13
-9.5
3
11/20
-4.4
17
09/17
1.2
61
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
9.9
96
10/18
-5.6
13
10/25
1.4
61
11/01
1.1
58
11/30
-0.9
45
09/18
-3.2
25
10/30
-1.0
40
11/27
-3.6
22
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
23
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
10
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
P
O
12/04
-32
L
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/17
21
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-18
L
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-4
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
W
U
12/05
-31
L
L
O
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
O
12/24
-38
L
L
U
01/01
20
W
W
U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O