MIADolphins
0-4
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph
24
NYJJets
2-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
62°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
3
0
0
6
Jets
1
7
3
7
18
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
296
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.08
Passing Yards
190
192
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
14/25(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.60
+0.02
Rushing Yards
118
104
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-17.83
-5.33
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-2.90
-3.83
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
10
49
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-6.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-32.4
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-32.4
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
29
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U