MIADolphins
2-4
30
TBD
Giants Stadium
54°F
10 mph
25
NYJJets
4-3
TBD
Giants Stadium
54°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
15
6
24
Jets
0
3
16
6
25
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
104
378
Total Plays
52
79
Yards / Play
2.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.01
Passing Yards
52
251
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
52
127
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-4.88
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-60
-14
Sack EPA
-10.34
-2.43
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-2.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.1
Away QB Adjustment
-26.9
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
109.5
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.9
Value
Ptile
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U