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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 8, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
2-4
30
TBD
Giants Stadium
54°F
10 mph
25
NYJJets
4-3
NYJ logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
15
6
24
Jets
0
3
16
6
25

Spread

MIA logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
104
378
Total Plays
52
79
Yards / Play
2.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.01
Passing Yards
52
251
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.06
Rushing Yards
52
127
Rush Attempts
23
40
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
10
23
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-4.88
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-60
-14
Sack EPA
-10.34
-2.43
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
40
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-2.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
-21.1
Away QB Adjustment
-26.9
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
109.1
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.9
Value
Ptile
10/04
-5.7
16
10/12
7.2
90
10/25
-5.7
16
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.1
56
09/20
-1.1
43
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
10/12
-0.4
47
10/18
-15.8
0
10/25
1.8
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
16
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-2-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
5
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
09/13
-12
L
L
U
09/21
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-10
L
L
U
10/04
28
W
W
O
10/12
4
W
W
O
10/25
-12
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
4
W
L
P
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
17
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/12
-4
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
L
U
10/25
38
W
W
O