MIADolphins
4-6
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
5 mph
38
NYJJets
5-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
45°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
0
7
13
20
Jets
7
7
7
17
38
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
411
Total Plays
70
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.08
Passing Yards
321
274
Comp/Att
33/58(57%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.39
Rushing Yards
12
137
Rush Attempts
9
34
Yards / Rush
1.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
--
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.50
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-30
-3
Sack EPA
-8.47
-1.69
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
40
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+55.1
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U