MIADolphins
6-5
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
6 mph
13
NYJJets
2-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
3
3
10
16
Jets
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
326
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.12
Passing Yards
217
49
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
7/13(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
3.8
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.37
Rushing Yards
74
277
Rush Attempts
18
49
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.09
-1.21
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-2.79
-4.46
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-6.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model75.6%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-232
Home nfelo
1,319
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+30.8
Market Regression
-5.5
Final Difference
-196.4
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+30.8
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
24
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U