MIADolphins
6-6
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
53°F
8 mph
6
NYJJets
9-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
53°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
0
0
0
10
Jets
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
131
280
Total Plays
56
81
Yards / Play
2.3
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.34
Passing Yards
30
193
Comp/Att
5/19(26%)
17/44(39%)
Yards / Pass
1.6
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.83
-0.45
Rushing Yards
101
87
Rush Attempts
32
31
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.43
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
14
Passing 1st downs
3
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
20%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-13.98
-6.18
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-25
-23
Sack EPA
-10.98
-8.87
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
36
50
Penalty EPA
-3.44
-6.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
26
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U