MIADolphins
3-9
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
9 mph
22
NYJJets
4-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
3
6
3
9
21
Jets
0
16
0
6
22
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
374
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.00
Passing Yards
240
262
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.21
Rushing Yards
122
112
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
31%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.98
-6.13
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-5
-8
Sack EPA
-2.36
-1.22
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
48
--
Penalty EPA
-7.74
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,250
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
-21.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
32
Yards / Game
32
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
18
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U