MIADolphins
8-8
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
10 mph
32
NYJJets
4-12
TBD
MetLife Stadium
34°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
6
0
0
14
20
Jets
0
15
3
14
32
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
377
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
4.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.09
Passing Yards
199
257
Comp/Att
25/41(61%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.03
Rushing Yards
135
120
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.91
-5.78
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-17
Sack EPA
-9.21
-4.95
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
32
35
Penalty EPA
-2.92
+0.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+35.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+55.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-60.9
Market Regression
+53.8
Final Difference
35.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-60.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
16
19
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U